Election 05

Done and dusted

2005-05-09T16:16:00.000+01:00

Well, the whole thing is well and truly over now. Even the other election bloggers are returning to politics as normal and its time for this one to shut down.

It's been a real pleasure to write this over the last few months so much so that i'm actually finding it hard to let go of it! I think we'll see more of this type of thing at the next election and I for one look forward to it.

For now, i'm taking a week off work, not watching any (well too much) news and taking a short break from the whole political thing. I'll be back with a new blog (and maybe with a couple of other people too) soon enough. If you want to know more, keep in touch or just say hi until the new blog goes live you can contact me at leon.green at gmail.com.

Take care people, see you soon.

Regards

Leon

Tory leader runners and riders

2005-05-06T16:48:00.000+01:00

Much has been made about the tussles for power within the Labour party between Blair and Brown. Even more has been made about the supposed deal made again and again between the two about Brown succeeding Blair if and when the latter steps down. Something that is now coming into view is the fight for the Tory leadership. Not much has been made about this but with Michael Howard announcing his intention to step down I’m sure we’ll see more.

Having talked to someone close to the Tory party (someone who in fact knows three frontbenchers well) the rumour is that Howard will change the voting rules for the leadership contests so that the Parliamentary party will have greater say (William Hague changed the rules to allow all Tory party members one member one vote to decide its leader) before stepping down. If he achieves this he’ll be likely to step down just before Christmas which is around the time I actually think Blair will go!

Anyway, the BBC has an article about the current state of play within the Tory party and who might go for the top job.

“Tory leader Michael Howard has announced he is to stand down following his party's election defeat in order to allow a younger leader to take over.

Speculation about who will take over the Conservative leadership has begun, with bookmakers William Hill already offering 3/1 odds on the shadow home secretary David Davis.” Link

Five things Tony Blair should learn from the election

2005-05-06T15:35:00.000+01:00

If only...Blair strikes me as someone who doesn't really care that much what others think only how they'll react to what he does.

"1. Labour wins when it governs from the centre. Tony Blair has made history, winning an unprecedented third Labour term, by worrying about middle England as well as the party's heartland supporters.

2. Iraq hurt: don't invade countries just because you don't like their regimes. It wasn't only the chattering classes who cared about the war. Despite what Mr Blair's advisers tell him, it isn't just a Guardian obsession.

3. Labour needs a smooth succession. Mr Blair must sit down with Gordon Brown and agree on when he should stand down. They should wait until at least after the referendum on the EU constitution.

4. People still don't like the Tories. The party's 33% share of the vote is not much of an improvement on its scores from 1997 and 2001. Despite Labour's much reduced majority, the government party can win a fourth term.

5. Our election system needs changing. It can't be fair that the Liberal Democrats won 22% of the vote but only 10% of the parliamentary seats. Surely Mr Blair can see the opportunity of creating a long-lasting progressive majority by introducing proportional representation." Link

Results

2005-05-06T03:42:00.000+01:00

Just got in from the ICA election event! I'm far too tired (and yes, drunk!) to give any coherent opinion on the night thus far save to say that there have been a few surprises. Stephen Twigg losing his seat being the one that take me by surprise but anyway click here for the full results and here for some general reports and updates.

Late change of plans

2005-05-05T17:47:00.000+01:00

Looks like the office thing has fallen through so now we're off to some bar to watch the results come in. If you're in town and want to join us we'll be here! I've just heard that Blink will be doing some live stuff throughout the night so keeping an eye there would be good, also if i'm not too drunk I'll and post my thoughts when I get home later.

Britain's voters heading to polls

2005-05-05T11:39:00.000+01:00

So...I voted and now begins the long wait until this evening. Work are having an informal get together with a wide screen TV and Playstation 2 on hand until the results show starts. Because i'll probably be here until 2 in the morning expect an entry or two!

"Voting is under way in the UK general election after a 30-day campaign.

Polls remain open in 645 constituencies until 2200 BST, with the first results due at 2345. It will not be clear who has won until early on Friday. " Link

OBV's General Election 2005

2005-05-04T16:30:00.000+01:00

Just up on the Operation Black Vote site is a timely look back over our election campaigning. Every picture speaks volumes and has a hundred stories behind them! Enjoy!

Election battle nears its climax

2005-05-04T16:23:00.000+01:00

Their battle ends and our job begins...

“The final dash for votes is on in the last hours of election campaigning for the political parties.

Labour leader Tony Blair has continued his warnings about the Conservatives by claiming they would risk the economy and investment in public services. Tory leader Michael Howard says his party would offer action on the people's priorities and open a new "chapter of hope" for Britain. Charles Kennedy predicted the Lib Dems would take a "massive step forward".” Link

Last ditch appeal for the Black vote

2005-05-04T14:46:00.000+01:00

An article about last night’s hustings in Holborn; the debate was a little more heated than the article suggests with one person being ejected for disruption. That said the audience was a good mix with much passion, insight and relentless attempts to hold the panel to account.

One more thing that really impressed me (and again not mentioned in the article) was how impressive the green MEP Jean Lamberts was! She not only had some of the biggest applauses of the night she also came across as being the person with the most integrity. I’ve never actually looked at a politician before and thought I could trust a word they said but Jean had me won over.

Chalk another vote up for the Greens tomorrow (and thats my opinion not official OBV policy btw!).

“Hustings organiser Simon Woolley, director of OBV, said our communities were "at the dawn of a new era of civic engagement." Reminding his audience that Black voters can decide the result of 70 seats, he said: "Never before have the Black electorate been so powerful.

"It's unacceptable that we only have 13 MP's when it should be nearer 60. Whose gonna change it? We're gonna change it when we use our votes and tell them no-one will get our vote until they address our concerns."" Link

Blair: don't risk a Tory government

2005-05-04T12:21:00.000+01:00

Perhaps if you don’t want a Tory government you shouldn’t vote for Blair/Neo Labour? Anyway, we’re into the last few hours of the election campaign and things look, well, not that much different really. Labour look set to win with a fairly workable majority, the Tories may even pick a few new seats as might the Lib Dems. The only really change we might see is a Green MP or two and a possible Respect MP.

Of course the interesting times will really start when Brown takes over, the economy takes a dive and Bush orders the UK to invade Iran with him! Pessimism? Maybe. Cynicism? Quite probably!

“The three party leaders will be criss-crossing the country today in a frantic last bid to get their votes out, with Mr Blair touching down in Lancashire, Scotland and County Durham; Mr Howard visiting Surrey, Yorkshire and Norfolk; and Mr Kennedy stopping in London and Yorkshire.

The latest Times/Populus opinion poll puts Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives, on 41% compared to the Tories' 27%, and with the Liberal Democrats on 23%.” Link

Poll reveals fragility of Labour lead

2005-05-03T01:07:00.000+01:00

Remember, sometimes, nothing is what it seems and your world can change in a blink of an eye...

"As all three main parties manoeuvre for last minute advantage 48 hours from polling day, ICM's campaign polls data shows that Labour's vote share in 108 key seats where it faces a strong Tory challenge is down from 47% in 2001 to 41%. The Tories have maintained their share of the vote at around 36%, suggesting their strategy of focusing money and personnel on re-winning lost marginals may inflict damage deep within Labour's post-1997 comfort zone." Link

What to do next?

2005-05-02T18:44:00.000+01:00

It occurs to me that this is one of the last few posts on this blog. I've got to say i've enjoyed it a great deal. It's been great fun to write an election blog (my first proper politics one at that!). Now my thoughts turn to what next? I want to keep this going but obviously the election will end so an election focused blog is pretty pointless. At present i'm thinkining of creating a new blog more broadly centred on politics but both local/community and westminster oriented.

I've still some stuff to think over (going for a drink with a friend in a couple of hours who is thinking similar things) but rest assured I will be around writing " an angry, idiotic, funny, or even insightful blog about" politics no matter what happens!

Punters defy polls to predict Labour crash

2005-05-02T02:42:00.000+01:00

Interesting stuff this; a friend of mine has been convinced all along that Labour will suffer a cut in seats and end up with a 60/70 seat majority. It seems that the betting people of this country agree...

"Richard Glynn, chief executive of the spread betting company, Sporting Index, said: "Our betting markets are formed by considered views backed by money - not sentiment."

Punters are betting that Labour's majority will be as low as 60 seats. Few punters are backing a majority of more than 80 seats." Link

" I wouldn’t be voting Labour if it weren’t for Brown.”

2005-04-30T20:35:00.000+01:00

Following on neatly from the entry below this article is worth a read. It attempts to start the new industry of understanding the Brown premiership! Good timing if you ask me...

"Mr Barrett clearly likes the Chancellor, and when Mr Brown had moved on I asked him if he thought he would make a better prime minister than the current one.

“Wouldn’t be hard, would it,” he said, grumpily.

“What do you mean?” I asked.

“Blair’s a liar. I wouldn’t be voting Labour if it weren’t for Brown.” The other apprentices nodded their assent. One day, Mr Brown will surely look back on these as his salad days." Link

Brown Puts Iraq in Election Spotlight

2005-04-30T20:01:00.000+01:00

Something of a puzzler this; why would Brown return to the Iraq issue when it is leaving the news agenda and so close to polling day? A bid for an early leadership change perhaps? His idea to let parliament always have a say on whether the country goes to war could be construed as an attempt to woo the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party), laying the foundation for him moving on Blair sooner than most people think.

I've thought often these past few months that Blair will be gone alot sooner that most people think. Some people I know think Blair will be gone in about 12 to 18 months, I don't think it'll be that long; I think he'll be got rid of by the end of the year...

"Tony Blair's finance minister Gordon Brown reignited the unpopular Iraq war as an election issue on Saturday, just days before Britain's May 5 vote, by saying parliament should have the last say on military action.

Brown's comments came despite attempts by his center-left Labor party to steer its campaign onto what strategists see as vote-winning issues, including the economy and health." Link

Blair and Howard return to flagship policies

2005-04-29T12:21:00.000+01:00

Looks like they've exhausted themselves and have decided to return to type.

"Labour and the Tories today sought to refocus on their core campaign messages, with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown highlighting their economic record and Michael Howard reminding voters of his five key pledges.

After a week dominated by the Iraq war and the publication yesterday of the attorney general's legal advice on military action, the prime minister and chancellor joined forces to unveil a new slogan of "Forward with Blair & Brown"." Link

Advice reveals Lord Goldsmith's doubts

2005-04-28T14:13:00.000+01:00

They really didn’t have much choice but to release it did they!?

“The government has broken with precedent and published the full text of the attorney general's March 7 legal advice to the prime minister, setting out Lord Goldsmith's cautious approach to the legality of the Iraq war.

Tony Blair authorised the disclosure on Thursday morning, after large parts of the documents were leaked to the media on Wednesday evening.” Link

You can read the full legal advice here. And Blair's response can be found here.

Positives of going negative

2005-04-27T16:39:00.000+01:00

Good comment on the current negative spiral the election is taking (well at least between the two bigger parties).

“It is the political sin everyone indulges in but nobody wants to admit to. And it looks like it is about to escalate in the closing days of the current election contest. Negative campaigning, what else, has been a feature of virtually every election in recent memory.” Link

Life in a glass house

2005-04-27T14:17:00.000+01:00

Given all the things Alistair Campbell has pulled over the years I think it’s a bit disingenuous to act as if Lynton Crosby is worse. Two pees in a pod if you ask me…

“Crosby's tactics represent a truly serious threat to the civility and robustness of British democracy and the way most politics is conducted in this country. It may be all downwards from here on.” Link

BNP tries scare tactics to win target voters

2005-04-27T13:58:00.000+01:00

These people disgust me.

“The far-right British National party is claiming that Africans are being paid up to £50,000 to move into its number one target seat to protect the majority of a government minister. The party has poured activists from the south of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland into Barking, the east London seat that the children's minister, Margaret Hodge, holds with a 9,500 majority.

Voters are being canvassed by 50- to 60-strong teams of BNP activists and targeted with a series of inflammatory leaflets. One contains the spurious claim about African voters, while another suggests they are being promised new homes in the Thames Gateway. Yet another raises a scare about the rate of TB infection.” Link

OBV sponsoring TUC hustings?

2005-04-27T10:41:00.000+01:00

Its funny how things work; a colleague mentioned that if support was needed for tonight’s Haringey TUC hustings (i.e. putting it up on our website, emailing throughout our networks etc) that’d be fine. We come into work today and find this! Apparently we’re “sponsoring” the hustings! A miscommunication or someone being a bit cheeky and using our name without asking? You decide!

Schoolkids rattle MP's cages

2005-04-26T21:12:00.000+01:00

In better words than I could muster Lester Holloway's write up of yesterdays OBV youth hustings is very close to the mark. It was a high octane event with the young people (I really hate using that word!) taking nothing for granted and being relentless in their persuit of truth. I was inspired and thrilled to see such energy, insight and passion by a group [of people] commonally dimissed as apathetic. Patronising adults take note; young people do care about politics but not bullshit. You have been warned.

"Afterwards Yussif Osman, 15, from Henry Compton school in Fulham, west London, said: "Generally this was really useful. It's one thing hearing them talk on television but it's another thing to be there."

Santier Milson, also 15, from Holland Park school, in central London, was less impressed. "I didn't really respect the Labour person. I didn't respect anyone except the Dean [Ryan] guy.

"The Labour person especially was disrespectful because he wanted to talk but didn't want to listen to what anyone else had to say. He says we should make up our own minds but how are we supposed to make up our own minds when what they're telling us us is false?"" Link

Parties call for Blair impeachment

2005-04-26T14:24:00.000+01:00

Not a snowballs chance in hell of succeeding but a predictable move none the less given the current news agenda...

"Leaders of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist parties vowed on Tuesday to resume their bid to impeach Prime Minister Tony Blair over his "record of lies" in the run-up to war with Iraq.

While the impeachment move is more symbolic than realistic, the campaign by the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru is likely to keep the subject of Iraq and Blair's integrity at the top of the political agenda before the May 5 election." Link

Lib Dem candidate dumps agent!

2005-04-26T14:15:00.000+01:00

Oh yeah, on a different note I've just heard that a Lib Dem candidate has just sacked their agent (yes that's right ten days before the election!). I've no idea which one as my source (who've been asked to be the candidates new agent) wont tell me! It'll probably come to nothing but it is quite drastic to dump your agent this close to polling day. I'm also wondering what the reason was...

Row over trust and Iraq continues

2005-04-26T14:10:00.000+01:00

It's the story that just wont go away...

"The party leaders have continued their row over Iraq and the trustworthiness of the prime minister. In an interview with the Guardian, Tony Blair attacked the Conservative leader for branding him a "liar" and for calling on the electorate to "send him a message". The Labour leader said Howard's move was part of a negative campaign being directed by Australian electoral strategist Lynton Crosby." Link

Lib Dems promise to make Britain fairer

2005-04-26T13:40:00.000+01:00

Sometimes the Lib Dems can look quite appealing but I can't shake this idea that if they get even a wiff of power they'll drop everything to get elected. Their star it appears is rising; time will tell whether they make it into Government with their "principals" (do political parties have principals?) intact.

"Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy has said that the central effect of his party's policies would be to make Britain fairer.

Mr Kennedy outlined his party's promises to introduce a maternity income guarantee, reduce class sizes, scrap university tuition and top-up fees, introduce free long-term care for the elderly and axe the present council tax system." Link

The boundaries of race in Britain today

2005-04-25T21:36:00.000+01:00

Very good article this.

Iraq returns as an election issue

2005-04-24T20:07:00.000+01:00

Given the amount of money that "war" cost us as tax payers why shouldn't it (and British foreign policy regarding war, arms sales etc) be a major issue for the electorate?

Bradford: hassle and confusion

2005-04-21T16:12:00.000+01:00

Terry Rooney’s office is less than happy with me. I told them to send their candidate to a place in Bradford for a photo/press call and our campaign team turned up in a different place. My information was based on the itinerary and our press release on my desk yet reason isn’t something that seemed to resonate to them. It aint my fault if I’m in London and the team in Bradford make last minutes changes is it!?

Well, it’ll all be over in a few minutes and then the team are off to Oldham to catch all the candidates coming out of a meeting! That flurry of phone calls should be fun!

Anyway, i'm off to the UaF protest against the BNP broadcast tonight...thankfully the weather is looking good!

Hi-Tech Tories on the campaign trail

2005-04-21T15:04:00.000+01:00

Blimey, that Michael Howard sure does have some amazing gadgetry stuff while out on the road! Check out his campaign bus:

“If you've ever wondered just how it is that Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin formulate on-the-fly policies regarding Council Tax while tirelessly gladhanding in different parts of country during the no-holds-barred slanging match which is otherwise known as a "pre-election campaign", then brace yourself for a comms kit overload.

According to a breathless press release just in, it's all down to a mobile "tactical" video conferencing unit aboard the Tory "Battle Bus" via which Howard communicates with his colleagues and advisors. Apparently, "the system gives Howard and his advisors the capability to meet for face-to-face consultation (and share data) even while the leader is on the road. Obviously, this is handy in terms of discussing strategy and tactics as campaign events unfold, and agreeing on decisions in real time."” Link

Busy, insanely busy

2005-04-21T14:13:00.000+01:00

Our campaign bus is out on the road as I write. We’re co-ordinating from London to get press and candidates to the right places. It’s insane, absolutely insane!

So far the Tories have been extraordinary helpful (even though Michael Howard is due in Leeds in the next hour or so) giving us mobile numbers or getting back to us straight away. Labour haven’t been too bad either, phoning back and getting their people to the right place but the Lib Dems…well, it would be nice if I could get a person on the phone! What kind of party leaves no one at a campaign centre in case of last minute calls? They can’t be that short staffed can they!?

Kennedy fumbles economics (again)

2005-04-20T17:20:00.000+01:00

Someone should really sit him down and make sure he’s got it straight in his head; Charles Kennedy has, yet again, gotten confused with how much money his party will save the “average family”!

“Charles Kennedy has done it again. After flying up to Aberdeen to visit a children's science centre in the three-way marginal Aberdeen South, he was again asked about local income tax. "The average family would be £540 a year better off," he said solemnly (the party's figure is £450). He did so in front of a 'pool camera' which will share television footage with all the networks.” Link

Election draws 3,500 candidates

2005-04-20T17:04:00.000+01:00

3500 candidates? 170 political parties?? Who are these people!?

“More than 3,500 candidates from 170 political parties are standing in 5 May's general election. The three main parties are fielding almost full slates in England, Scotland and Wales, but are not opposing speaker Michael Martin's constituency.

The Lib Dems are also again standing aside in Wyre Forest where Dr Richard Taylor (Independent) defends his seat. UKIP is fielding 488 candidates; the Greens have 200, while 118 British National Party candidates are standing.” Link

The political divide: Reality versus “politics”

2005-04-20T13:45:00.000+01:00

Yesterdays battle bus outing was characterised for me by two distinct realities. In Bethnal Green we had George Galloway showing one form of cowardice and Oona King (with Paul Boatang I might add) showed another. In Brixton we had real politics by real people.

The day started in Brixton; it went well, lot’s of press/media but more importantly some impassioned and very grounded political views from “ordinary” people. Simon got a live interview with ITN lunch time news and we nearly had a live feed with BBC news at one. Unfortunately a gang of idiots decided to change the news agenda with some typically negative and ill thought out “protest”.

After cutting a few places due to time constraints and lack of press/candidate interest we headed up to Brent for a brief interview and photo call with candidates from the Brent South and East constituencies. Sarah Tether was very nice in person and I caught up with the Conservative candidate who interestingly endorsed the Black Manifesto even though it contradicts the Tory policy on immigration! People will do anything for the votes it seems; even risk the anger of their leader or his Daily Mail readership.

After a quiet interlude at Brent it was off the Bethnal Green for the candidates debate/photo call with the Black Manifesto and to hand out more pledge cards. Man, that constituency is a joke right now. The fight between King and Galloway has got so dirty, so infantile that it’s beyond words. The worst moment (a part from a near fight, it seemed, breaking out between the Bethnal Green Tory candidate and Galloway) was seeing Galloway goad the other candidates then stand back and let his foot soldiers take up the fight (while he smiled gleefully like a school child happy about the fight he’d started). Also at this time I had someone from the King campaign telling me she was in a meeting and might not come across even though even I knew that she and Boatang were cowering 200 feet away in a blue people carrier! Amazing, both candidates were too scared to fight their own battles and used others to do it (or not do it as the case may be) for them.

The depressing thing is that this is all one of the reasons why “ordinary” people don’t vote; don’t engage in the political process. Its people like them (and the party machines that drives them) that make my job harder! Their actions make a mockery of the lives they claim to represent; the people I spoke to yesterday had actual concerns, real worries, real politics. Not this mindless, playground, cowardly bullshit.

Kennedy vs Paxman

2005-04-18T19:55:00.000+01:00

It's into its final few minutes and apart from Charlie not looking to consistant in places I can't help but get irritated by Paxman. His position is one of importance and the guy just interrupts far too often; let the guy finish a sentence before asking another question dammit!

If he does this too much in Blair/Howard's interview it will leave some very odd feelings of sympathy in me!

Fame at last!

2005-04-18T19:12:00.000+01:00

I don't know whether to feel proud or to laugh with self conscience amusement but the lovely people at Online Parliamentarian have just posted a short profile of me! Onward and upward!

Election 05: Now featured on the Times election blog!

2005-04-18T15:12:00.000+01:00

If you look over at that ever growing list of election related urls you will notice a new addition. I asked the Times Online blog if they'd put my site up on their blog list and they said yes! Very nice of them indeed (unlike the Guardian who haven't even answered my request yet...).

And now for something slightly different...

2005-04-18T13:38:00.000+01:00

Humour, always a good way to let off steam and get some perspective. I present to you something funny!

Battle Bus tour: London schedule

2005-04-18T13:09:00.000+01:00

As promised below is the full London schedule for the campaign tour:

Battle Bus

Campaign Tour

19th April 2005

Constituency: Brixton

Time: 10.00am

Photo Call: Lambeth Town Hall

Brixton Hill

London

SW2 1RW

Constituency: Croydon

Time: 11.30am

Photo Call: Croydon Town Hall

Katherine Street

Croydon

Constituency: Battersea

Time: 12.30pm

Photo Call: Battersea Arts Centre (formerly Battersea Town Hall)

Lavender Hill

London

SW11

Constituency: Hammersmith & Fulham

Time: 13.45pm

Photo Call: Hammersmith & Fulham Town Hall

King Street

London

W6 9JU

Constituency: Brent South/ East

Time: 14.45pm

Photo Call: Brent Town Hall

Forty Lane

London

HA9 9HX

Constituency: Bethnal Green/Bow

Time: 16.45pm

Photo Call: Intersection of Cambridge Heath Road/Whitechapel Road/Mile End, London

A moment to breathe…

2005-04-18T11:32:00.000+01:00

Haven’t read a single thing about the election today; hence no comment/article/link. I decided to take a few minutes from a very hectic office to write this…things are busy which is good because that means things are going well.

My main concern right now is finalising next weeks youth hustings event but also we’re about to have a meeting about the campaign bus tour (which starts in London tomorrow) so i'm juggling a number of things. I should have some details about it later...

Things get bitter for the real Eastenders

2005-04-17T14:05:00.000+01:00

Oona King must pay for supporting the war but I must admit I don’t relish the idea of Galloway being in power there. I doubt he’ll care much about the area beyond using them in his egotistical anti-war rant against the Labour party...

“King is interrupted by a passionate outburst from a young woman: 'We believed in you so much ... we were shocked by what you did on the war ... it was like you had been bringing up a child, feeding it and pampering it, and then when it had grown up you just shot it! I'm sorry, but this is how we felt you treated us.'” Link

Election 05: Fear is the key

2005-04-17T13:48:00.000+01:00

It is utterly depressing that the only way people feel inclined to take charge of their interests is when they are scared into it. Unfortunately the parties are unscrupulous in using fear to get what they want so we’ve been conditioned to be this way. See the attacks on travellers, the Labour obsession with Michael Howard, Anti “Terror” laws etc for good examples of how the politics of fear has pervaded our political thought, discourse and action.

(Entire article posted because you’ll have to pay at some point for it)

“Fear works. The cloud of apathy that had descended on the British electorate is beginning to disperse. People who were thinking of not bothering to vote as recently as a week ago have now decided that they will make that trip to the polling booth - some for the Government, some against.

It is not that they have been induced by mouth-watering promises. Indeed, one of the most striking aspects of the past week, for people with long memories, is the fatalism with which the politicians and trade union leaders have accepted the death of Rover, once the pride of the British automobile industry. In the 1970s, the parties would have tripped over each other with their promises to find ways to keep the plant alive. Now, there is a resigned acceptance that a Government's power to control the market is limited.

But one political message that is getting through - whether it comes from Tony Blair or Michael Howard - is along the lines of "if you don't vote for me, something nasty will happen".

Nasty is the word Mr Blair used to denounce the Conservative campaign yesterday, along with "unscrupulous". He had in mind the statements made by the Tories about immigration, crime, and, most recently, about the MRSA superbug.

Hundreds of thousands of women, in every marginal seat in the country, have been sent letters signed by Mr Howard warning that if they go into an NHS hospital, they face a "shocking" risk of catching an infection. "My own family knows how devastating the consequences can be - we lost my mother-in-law to MRSA three years ago," the letter added.

Each letter includes a precise and very alarming local statistic. In Stroud, for example - where Labour is defending a 5,039 majority - voters were told that "last year alone, 193 people contracted MRSA in your local NHS Trust". This has come as a shock to the Cotswold and Vale hospital trust, who say they do not know of any patients contracting an MRSA infection in Stroud general hospital last year.

The Tories put that discrepancy down to an unfortunate typing error: the letter should have said "trusts" not "trust". "That was a mistake and I'm very sorry we made that mistake," Mr Howard said yesterday. But if you are searching for a deliberate lie, the Tories say, you should look at the campaign Labour launched this weekend, with cabinet ministers popping up around the country collecting signatures for a "Keep the NHS Free" petition - which implies that healthcare will not be free if the Tories are elected.

That is a deliberate misreading of Tory policy, they say. "There is no question of the Conservative Party introducing new charges into the NHS. No NHS patient will have to pay for their operation," the Shadow health secretary, Andrew Lansley, insisted.

What the Tory health manifesto actually said was: "Private patients have paid their taxes like everyone else. If they choose to go private and free up NHS space for other patients, they should not be punished but helped. If an independent hospital charges more for an operation than the NHS, patients will be entitled to 50 per cent of the NHS cost as a contribution towards their bill."

The Tories claim that they are simply increasing choice for NHS patients. But the Health Secretary, John Reid, says if the wealthy start paying to speed up their operations, partly out of NHS funds, those who cannot pay will be made to wait. He says that calling this "choice" is like telling someone going to Liverpool that they need not pay the fare if they can't afford it, because they can always walk instead.

Other things Mr Blair may have had in mind when he used the word "nasty" include Mr Howard's comments on immigration, his attacks on the Human Rights Act and his remarks about Gypsies. The Tory leader returned to the subject yesterday. He claimed: "The so-called Human Rights Act has allowed arsonists to escape expulsion from school, killers to win the right to pornography in prison, and travellers to set up illegal encampments in defiance of planning laws."

Mr Howard insists he has a right to raise these issues. "I'll carry on talking about fair play even though I'm attacked for it because I will never be stopped from saying what I know is right." Labour claims that he is using misleading images to whip up fear. Mr Blair might also have thought that the Tory cinema advertisement, in which he is depicted as a grinning, untrustworthy and none too bright, was "nasty". But Labour has replied in kind with a short cinematic biography of Mr Howard, which suggests that he is divisive and uncaring.

Conventional wisdom is that voters are put off by "negative" campaigning. But that is not what has been happening, according to the latest poll for this newspaper. Like other polls, it shows a slight shift in Labour's favour, but by far the most significant statistical shift is that 60 per cent of those sampled say they are "absolutely certain" to vote on 5 May, compared with 49 per cent a week ago. Apparently, the electorate is being jolted out of its apathy by scary slogans.

So how does this leave the nice guy in the middle, who makes it his unique selling point that he doesn't do "yah-boo"?

Charles Kennedy should have had a brilliant week. As Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have demonstrated in the past five years, there is nothing like becoming a father to boost a politician's popularity. Unfortunately for Mr Kennedy - whether it was from sleep deprivation due to a squalling infant or just a lapse of concentration - he spoiled his week with a toe-curlingly embarrassing display of how not to present your showcase policy.

Mr Kennedy had put the case for replacing the council tax - which would benefit those on low incomes, though, he conceded, it would hit the better paid. He was asked what level of income a family would have to be on to lose. Mr Kennedy replied: "You are talking in the region of twen... twent... twen ... twen... yuh, I mean if you [pause] take [pause] a double-income... say a double income couple, uh, 20,000 each that's what you are talking about, 40,000 ..."

The encouraging news for the Liberal Democrats is, perhaps, that anyone cares what they are saying. Previously, they enjoyed the luxury of being able to put up any policy they liked. Voters were never going to be frightened off because no one expected to see them in government.

Unless the polls are badly wrong, the Lib Dems are on course to emerge with the largest number of MPs that they or their predecessors, the Liberals, have had for 70 years. That is why they have to be careful what they say. No doubt Mr Kennedy's advisers have already told him that if he wants to be the voice of reassuring sanity in a slanging match, he should get a proper night's sleep before he tries to tackle complex questions.” Link

Student vote 'to swing 27 seats'

2005-04-16T16:26:00.000+01:00

Let’s see now, the Muslim vote is reckoned to be 50 seats of importance, the Black vote is 70 and the student vote is apparently worth 27 seats. I wonder how many of these different voting groups overlap, or if they present a significant force in the coming election?

“The student vote will be crucial to deciding 27 key seats in the general election, says the Liberal Democrat president Simon Hughes. Promoting the party's plan to scrap tuition fees, Mr Hughes said student voters were swinging to the Lib Dems. "There is increasing interest among students on issues such as fees and Iraq - and all the polls show we're their party of choice," he said.

The Tories also back scrapping fees - and Labour promises increased grants.” Link

Lib Dems 'green' manifesto claims rubbished

2005-04-15T17:05:00.000+01:00

I was expecting this from the Greens. The claim that the Lib Dems are the greenest party is more than a little audacious.

“On the day the Lib Dems launch their environmental manifesto, Greens have slammed the LibDems' record in office on local authorities and in Scotland, warning voters: "Lib Dems use Green rhetoric to get into office, then systematically exploit their position by supporting road building schemes, incinerators, airport expansion and even backing GM crops."

Dr Caroline Lucas MEP, Green Party principal speaker and Green Euro-MP for the South East comments: "The Lib Dem record in office - locally and in Scottish Parliament - is a catalogue of broken promises and unravels their manifesto's 'green thread' from top to bottom." Link

Online parliamentarian

2005-04-15T16:36:00.000+01:00

Described as

“An e-democracy informal on-line journal, blogging the politics of new media networks and communications.

It is read by 1 Deputy Minister, 3 MSPs, 5 Parliamentary Assistants, 7 Civil Servants, 2 Academics, 1 Editor, 0 Journalists, Bloggers who surf in and wonder where they are, oh, and a few other supernumeriaries of the teledemocracy community.

It blogs technology issues, in relation to electronic democracy and digital inclusivity and is published online regularly, except during the summer recess.”

Online parliamentarian is a useful site for keeping up to date with the Westminster world (and beyond). You can read more here.

Rover and the electoral implications for Labour

2005-04-15T15:07:00.000+01:00

Just noticed this update. The interesting part of the very thin press release is this:

“Sources said the government is prepared to offer up to 150 mln stg.” Link

Not sure how that is going to work because I'm sure that the UK is bound by European trade laws which means it cannot re-nationalise the company...but then this may be just be some spin to avoid an electoral fallout in some marginal seats.

An end to first past the post?

2005-04-15T12:32:00.000+01:00

Many thanks to the Make My Vote Count blog for bringing this to my attention; it appears that a change to the electoral process is being looked into by Labour. I’m sure we’ve heard this all before but it’s still holds some interesting prospects for the future of our democracy.

“The Government admitted last night that it had secretly begun a review into an alternative to the current first-past-the-post system, the “unfairness” of which threatens to be laid bare in the election.

The disclosure represents a significant shift in Labour’s position on how MPs are elected and could yet herald the introduction of a similar voting system to those in place for the Scottish and European parliaments and the Welsh Assembly.” Link

Black vote campaigners hit the road

2005-04-14T14:44:00.000+01:00

I'm sure to be at one of the locations so if you want to come and meet me you can!

“Activists plan to tour the country spreading the message that Black voters possess the power to decide who wins the general election.

Operation Black Vote (OBV) kick off the Roadshow on Tuesday, visiting areas of London with high black and Asian populations. They plan to visit the London neighbourhoods of Brent, Brixton, Tottenham and Tower Hamlets. On Wednesday the campaigners will tour several cities and towns including Luton, Birmingham, Bradford and Oldham.” Link

Election 05: making it in the blogsphere?!

2005-04-14T11:11:00.000+01:00

Time for a small pat on the back for me. I've just entered my election blog into this blog search engine and found it appears in some interesting places. I knew about it being linked on my friend's blog but it has also appeared as a source here and even made it overseas to this blog as one to watch!

If any of the people who write them are reading I would just like to say a big thank you; this blog is a fun but increasingly big part of my blogging time. Hopefully if things go well it will achieve greater exposure and not end with the election (i've an idea for a new politics blog to take over were this will leave off on May 6th).

Kennedy launches Lib Dem manifesto

2005-04-14T10:34:00.000+01:00

Today Charles Kennedy launched the Liberal Democrats manifesto. I must say from the picture of him in the Guardian I wonder if he has the energy (or control over his alleged drink problem) to get through this campaign. You can read the full manifesto here.

“A tired-looking Charles Kennedy launched the Liberal Democrat manifesto this morning, promising tax cuts for 15 million families and the phased withdrawal of British troops from Iraq. Mr Kennedy, whose first child was born on Tuesday, said his party's tabloid-sized manifesto was "based on fairness and opportunity, dignity for older people, real opportunity for our children and a fair deal for families".

"It is a fully costed and affordable programme to create a fairer Britain. The Liberal Democrats are the real alternative at this election.” Link

Electoral reform groups welcome Labour manifesto

2005-04-13T17:46:00.000+01:00

I guess this should be titled should we trust them? The pledge to review the electoral process in this country with proportional representation in mind is very interesting. The more votes reflect the actual desires of the electorate the more power the electorate has. I agree in part with Nina when she says:

“Nina Temple, the director of Make Votes Count, said: "The blandness of the commitment is irrelevant - its relevance is that it was there at all.” Link

But I can’t help wonder if there is more to it than that. The Lib Dems under Kennedy have said that they aren’t interested in forming a coalition government with Labour so Labour don’t even have the safety net of bringing in PR and still being power with the Lib Dems in future. Further to this why should we trust Labour at all given its history of deceit and manipulation?

The Kennedy blog

2005-04-13T15:28:00.000+01:00

Well, ok it's not actually written by him but by those on the campaign trail with him. It looks simple and nice (although I'm considering moving over to using Wordpress so maybe i'm a little bias!) and you can find it here.

Cherie helps Oona's fight

2005-04-13T14:59:00.000+01:00

Cherie Blair gets down and dirty in the fight to save Oona Kings political life:

“Cherie Blair urged Labour voters to give anti-war campaigner George Galloway a "bloody nose" in the general election. In a rare foray into frontline party politics, the Prime Minister's wife called on residents in Bethnal Green and Bow to help sitting MP Oona King defeat Mr Galloway.” Link

Blair launches Labour's manifesto

2005-04-13T13:00:00.000+01:00

An interesting document it seems; no picture of Blair on the cover and a promise from him not to serve a full term? “Vote for me and I’ll leave!” Blair was heard not to say!

“Labour's manifesto has had a painful birth, with reports that the chancellor was angry about being excluded from the process and speculation about whether it would live up to its billing as "unremittingly New Labour". The final draft appears to represent a compromise between Mr Blair's vision of greater public sector choice and Mr Brown's more traditionally social democratic approach both making an appearance.

Mr Blair's influence can be seen behind the sections entitled "the New Labour case" at the top of each of the booklet's 10 chapters, setting out the argument for continued reform. Mr Brown, meanwhile, is understood to have overseen the economic and education chapters and personally written the "New Labour case" on the economy.” Link

You can read the full manifesto here (pdf file).

A little light relief?

2005-04-12T14:16:00.000+01:00

Without doubt this has to be the burning issue of this election, no, our times; our eon even!

Blair will step down 'sooner rather than later'

2005-04-12T13:57:00.000+01:00

I’ve been thinking the same thing the last few days. A colleague of mine thinks Blair will stay for a good while if he gets a decent majority but I can’t see that happening. If I was a betting man I’d lay money on Labour getting no more than a 60 seat majority and Blair going (or being got rid of) within the first six months.

“Robin Cook has predicted Tony Blair will stand down as Labour leader to make way for Gordon Brown "sooner rather than later" if Labour wins a third term. Former foreign secretary Cook, who has been tipped for a return to the Cabinet if Brown does become prime minister, said the chancellor's new central role in the election campaign would have "profound political consequences".” Link

Tories launch election manifesto

2005-04-11T14:34:00.000+01:00

Exhumed from his tomb Michael Howard today launched the Tory manifesto…you know I find it hard to get interested let alone excited about this one…

“Conservative leader Michael Howard has launched his programme for government with a strong attack on Tony Blair. The Tory leader said at 63 he could hang up his boots and enjoy his retirement but he wanted to "battle for Britain", the country he loved. Mr Howard urged people to read the Tory manifesto and "see how we've changed". He warned that re-electing Labour would mean "five more years of smirking". ” Link

Immigration (again)

2005-04-10T19:34:00.000+01:00

And so it goes, the “debate” around immigration continues and now even Tories are attacking the, um, Tories (and no I don’t mean rightwing Labour either!).

“Mr Howard's proposal that parliament set an annual cap on the number of migrants allowed into the country each year, which would involve pulling out of the UN convention on refugees, was dismissed however by his former Home Office colleague.

Mr Wardle, who had invited himself to a Labour party press conference, said that "it almost defies belief that Mr Howard is standing before people and presenting this as a policy proposal". "It is the most half baked, incoherent package imaginable. It shows he is utterly unsuited for the position of prime minister."” Link

Immigration heads election battle

2005-04-10T02:49:00.000+01:00

Immigration is the Tories strongest card (according to most polls) so it’s of no surprise that they keep banging the xenophobe drum. I would like to hope that Neo Labour won’t take the bait but given Blair’s panic over the issue I won’t waste my time.

“Tory leader Michael Howard will accuse Tony Blair of "pussyfooting" around immigration problems as the poll campaign resumes after a two-day pause. Mr Howard will say ignoring the issue only plays into the hands of bigots.

But Labour will hit back with help from a Conservative ex-minister, who calls the Tory plans "the most half-baked, incoherent package imaginable. The Lib Dems are launching their battle bus, with leader Charles Kennedy promising to fight a positive campaign.” Link

'Rent-a-crowds' ensure nothing is left to chance

2005-04-09T02:35:00.000+01:00

I’ll spell it out because obviously some people (read party strategists) don’t understand; the whole point of elections and campaigning is that your candidates/party is meant to go out onto the street and engage directly with the voters. They are meant to be confronted with all manner of uncomfortable situations because for the majority of us that is what life can be like. They have to do this to show that they aren’t alien from us, are prepared to see what our lives are like and what they can then do if we choose to elect them to serve us. Clear? Apparently not...no they think that you run an election with nothing but pretence, marketing and bullshit.

“When Tony Blair and Gordon Brown launched an election campaign poster this week in front of an enthusiastic crowd, some members of their audience may have felt they had heard it all before. The politicians' words may have been familiar, and so were some of the faces of the background crowd. The Virgo family - Rachel and Benjamin, and their young children, Gilbert, five, Theo, three, and Albany one - were stationed behind the Chancellor at Thursday's poster launch.

But Mrs Virgo and Albany were also in the background crowd at the unveiling a month ago of another campaign poster by Messrs Blair and Brown, prompting accusations that Mr Blair was using a rent-a-crowd to falsely give the impression he was meeting ordinary people.” Link

Will Rover collapse hurt Labour?

2005-04-08T13:33:00.000+01:00

It’s quite possible that it will; some of the constituencies near the plant have a high number of Muslim voters who are expected to vote from an anti war position. Couple that with the 15,000 or so workers on the verge of losing their jobs and you have electoral problems if you’re the Labour party.

Whether they feel Labour did enough to help them will be a factor in whether they vote against them but then who they vote for will have to make some pretty big promises too.

“The sight of one of Britain's greatest manufacturing plants collapsing with thousands of job losses is about the last image Labour would want to take into a general election campaign.

It is particularly dangerous for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown who have put the economy at the centre of their campaign. Their boasts about the low unemployment and economic stability their government has embedded may well ring hollow in the ears of those affected by the closure.” Link

Visa restrictions to Nigerians?

2005-04-08T11:46:00.000+01:00

An interesting piece of information this; apparently the Government is set to announce this lunch time restrictions to Nigerians getting visas to enter the UK. BBC News London looks like they will be picking it up (questions about voting numbers of Nigerians and what constituencies they’re primarily being pertinent). And I wouldn’t be surprised is the anti-racism lobby gets drawn into it if the story goes anywhere.

If I hear anymore I’ll let you know…

Crisis talks over immigration

2005-04-07T17:04:00.000+01:00

The idea of Blair getting into a blind panic doesn’t surprise me at all. Once, long ago, a friend detailed to me a conversation his father had had with Lord Falconer about a phone conversation he’d with Blair a few days after the 97 election victory. In it Blair was in blind panic on the phone imploring Falconer (desperately I might add) to help him because he didn’t have a clue how to run a government. Apparently he was so obsessed with winning that he never thought through what would happen once in power.

Of course, if true, this would explain some of the stories about how Labour still had a campaign/opposition party mindset for the first few years of running the Government.

From what I’ve heard (from people who’ve worked with him or known him via others) and what I’ve read (in particular a book about Alistair Campbell) Blair really doesn’t know his own mind, he is not as strong as he is made out and a lot of “his” views are essentially made up by others.

“Tony Blair has been in crisis talks with Labour strategists amid signs that voters' worries about immigration could derail his election campaign. The Prime Minister has been told that the public is simply not listening to his message on the issue and that tough Tory policies are striking a chord.

In a further sign of disarray, Mr Blair is said by senior government sources to have been forced to bring back Gordon Brown to help the election campaign because he was in “absolute panic" about the state of Labour's performance.” Link

Do you want Blair/Brown to run country?

2005-04-07T13:28:00.000+01:00

Maybe it’s just me but I thought this election was between political parties not between members of one party?

“Tony Blair gave his strongest indication yet that Gordon Brown will keep his job as Chancellor if Labour wins the election. The Prime Minister hailed his leadership rival as the 'best Chancellor for this country for several decades'. He added: 'He has done a fantastic job managing the economy. His record speaks for itself - so you would want that record to continue, really.'” Link

OBV unveils election webpage

2005-04-06T10:07:00.000+01:00

Operation Black Vote would not live up to its name if it did not have a dedicated election page. It’s now live and filled with relevant information for the black voter in the coming election.

“The May 2005 General election offers Briton’s Black communities the greatest opportunity to make a substantial impact in this electoral debate.

Politically we hold the balance of power in over 70 seats, that could be the difference between success and failure for all three leaders. With that clout we must engage as never before. ‘Power concedes nothing without demands’, and in the Black Manifesto: equality in our life time’, OBV and a coalition of Black organisations and faith groups have set out an agenda for change."
Link

UK General Election announced

2005-04-05T14:04:00.000+01:00

Finally.

“The general election will be held on 5 May, Tony Blair has formally announced. Speaking after asking the Queen to dissolve Parliament next week, Mr Blair said Labour had a "driving mission" for a third term in office.

The Conservative and Liberal Democrat leaders pre-empted the announcement by starting nationwide tours of key seats. Michael Howard accused Mr Blair's government of "losing the plot" while Charles Kennedy said he would focus on people's hopes, not their fears.” Link

Another very useful election site

2005-04-04T14:50:00.000+01:00

This site is truly amazing; it’s got all kinds of sites on there (including me!). Link

Protocol of calling an election

2005-04-04T14:40:00.000+01:00

Something that not everyone knows is what the procedure is for calling an election. This article does a good job of giving an insight into the arcane world of Parliament:

“When Mr Blair goes to see Her Majesty, she could refuse the dissolution of Parliament and tell him "Labour has a huge majority and if you can't form a Government I'm going to ask that nice Jack Straw to do so instead."

Technically she could, but she won't be inviting the Foreign Secretary and Blackburn MP, or even Chancellor Gordon Brown in for a chat over their future. For the convention is that when the Prime Minister decides to call a General Election, the Queen dutifully agrees.” Link

“Respectful” lull in electioneering: cynical excuse to re-establish strategy?

2005-04-04T10:45:00.000+01:00

I’m not religious so my thoughts on this may offend (you have been warned!) but it occurs to me that the Pope dying may be just what the Tories need right now. With the whole Howard Flight situation getting more and more entrenched Michael Howard needs a few days with different headlines. Neo Labour may of scored a short term victory with the Flight sting operation (apparently a result of their Operation Black Watch) but the Tories had real momentum up until Flight-gate.

Perhaps a death of a Pope is useful for all party strategists to pause for thought, re-establish themselves and their agenda?

We need race minister to fight inequality

2005-04-01T10:13:00.000+01:00

What will probably be one of the most controversial parts of the Black Manifesto is the demand for a Minister for Race:

“Campaigners yesterday called for the introduction of a race minister as they launched a manifesto demanding equality for black and ethnic minority communities. The initiative, organised by Operation Black Vote (OBV), is designed to push race-related issues higher up the agenda in the run-up to the election.

It wants a race minister, equivalent to the existing women's minister. Karen Chouhan, of the 1990 Trust, said: "Tackling racism at a cabinet level, along with the other measures, will be a quantum leap forward."” Link

Launch of the Black Manifesto

2005-03-31T14:51:00.000+01:00

Launched today in Westminster the Black Manifesto aims to change much in relation to equality within the Black and Minority Ethnic communities in Britain. In addition to this Operation Black Vote has unveiled a report detailing 70 constituencies where if mobilised the BME population could determine the outcome of the election.

Some initial news reports (I’ll post more as they come in, very tired right now from the launch!):

Radical Black Manifesto unveiled

“The 30-page document will call on politicians to stop turning a blind eye to shocking levels of racism in Britain and start taking real action. The coalition of Black-led groups will also unveil four 'key demands' printed on cards which will be handed out to Black voters across the country.” Link

Ethnic vote's key constituencies

“Ethnic minority voters could be "critical" in 71 seats at the next General Election, according to campaign group Operation Black Vote (OBV). Its research has pinpointed constituencies in England and Wales where it says the votes of ethnic minorities could be decisive in determining the outcome at the next General Election.” Link

Last moments before the Black Manifesto…

2005-03-30T17:47:00.000+01:00

The office is straining under a deluge of phone calls and emails all regarding tomorrows launch of the Black Manifesto. I finally got a proper look at it yesterday (mainly to look for any last minute mistakes in spelling etc) and look forward to its impact. If I get time tomorrow afternoon I’ll post up how the press conference/launch went. If all goes well I should have some news reports to post on Friday.

UK Polling Report

2005-03-24T15:26:00.000Z

With the election focusing the minds of us politically interested types it is always good to have round ups of on going events, stats or thoughts. The UK Polling Report is a blog dedicated to pulling together and recording the political polling in the UK.

Written by Anthony Wells and described as “UK Polling Report is an independent archive of British political opinion polls, bringing together polls from all the major polling companies in the run up to the 2005 general election and offering commentary and analysis of the latest figures. It is maintained by Anthony Wells.”

Well worth checking out if you want a portal for all your polling needs! Link

Missing voters blow for Labour

2005-03-24T02:12:00.000Z

Given how many people have become disillusioned with politics because of Blair and his Neo Labour project it is of no surprise that the latest figures on voter registration appears to be down more in Labour held seats.

“Tens of thousands of potential voters have failed to register their right to vote in time for an expected May 5 general election. The vanishing voters, who appear to have gone missing disproportionately in Labour-held seats, are revealed in government figures and a report by MPs today.” Link

General election "to be called on Thursday"

2005-03-23T15:24:00.000Z

According to Blink the starting gun for the coming election is about to be fired. If true this means my prediction of a couple of weeks back was spot on.

“TONY BLAIR will name the general election date this Thursday ending months of speculation, according to a source close to Downing Street. The source reported "high levels of activity to get things out of the way this week" in expectation of an announcement by the Prime Minister.

The election date, believed to be 5th May, will come as no surprise to the Westminster village. Contrary to some speculation there will be no morale-boosting by-election in Brent South or elsewhere. The source said: "There is a strong feeling here that something is about to happen now."” Link

Jesse Jackson, voter registration and the usual party politics

2005-03-10T14:02:00.000Z

As you can imagine I’ve been busy, very busy with the Jesse Jackson event, it went well thankfully, and I’ll be off for the next few days for a lovely four day weekend! Before I go here are a couple of things that have caught my eye today:

The preacher comes to town

“"Your vote matters," he tells the audience.”If you don't vote, you are missing out on the opportunity to make your issues a priority. If you vote and vote in numbers you will determine the outcome of this election."” Link

Deadline for voter registration approaches

“Voters need to register now or risk being unable to vote in the upcoming general election. If pundits are right and the general election is called for May 5, would-be-voters have only until March 11 to register their vote under electoral registration laws. In Northern Ireland the cut off date is March 10.

In England, Wales and Scotland if you or the head of your household, filled in the registration form delivered last autumn you should be on the voting register. UK citizens living abroad, or in Northern Ireland, are required to register individually. If you have moved home it is particularly important that you check whether you are on the register - just because you are paying council tax does not mean you are registered to vote.” Link

Brown ally calls for moral revival

“Labour needs to learn from President Bush's re-election campaign and fight with a stronger sense of moral purpose, Douglas Alexander, the party's former election coordinator, has argued. The analysis comes amid growing Labour jitters about the party's response to an unexpectedly energetic Conservative campaign.” Link

Kennedy promises pensioners 'respect'

“The Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, today promised to treat Britain's pensioners with the "respect they deserve" at the launch of the party's mini-manifesto to win over the grey vote.” Link

Mini-health manifesto to be unveiled

2005-03-08T10:30:00.000Z

I keep thinking; if you want to sort out the NHS why spend billions invading other countries? It’s funny how common sense escapes those in the House of “Commons”…

“The Prime Minister will pledge today that patients will wait no longer than 18 weeks for an operation on the NHS in a third term of Labour government. The guarantee will form a central plank in Labour's so-called "mini" health manifesto launched jointly by Tony Blair and Health Secretary John Reid at a press conference in London this morning.” Link

Jackson urges black voters to 'use your voice'

2005-03-07T10:25:00.000Z

Very busy with doing last minute organising for the JJ event but this is something from yesterday for you to mull over:

"The Reverend Jesse Jackson will launch a US-style crusade to stamp out apathy among black Britons and mobilise thousands to make their mark at the ballot box, when he comes to Britain this week. In an impassioned speech, the black civil rights activist will tell a 1,000-strong crowd that the very presence of black Britons 'is under threat'. 'There are those who seek to shackle your talent, and keep you at the bottom of society,' he will declare. 'You must seize the opportunity while you have it. You must use your vote and your voice.'"

Headteachers jeer Kelly over reforms

2005-03-04T17:14:00.000Z

This may be stretching my election blog remit here but this article caught my attention:

"The education secretary, Ruth Kelly, was jeered and accused of "patronising" headteachers today during angry exchanges on her plans for school reforms. She told the Secondary Heads Association annual conference in Brighton that the government's reforms to teachers' working conditions had given heads the resources and freedom they needed. But the audience of 450 heads and deputy heads disagreed, interrupting her during a question and answer session and shouting: "No it hasn't."

David Peck, of Mosely school in Birmingham, also criticised what he called Ms Kelly's lack of experience, and accused her of being "patronising". He said: "Members of the Tomlinson committee had an enormous amount of experience in education - with respect, far more than you." "

Brilliant stuff, Labour have just launched their "mini manifesto" (everything's mini these days; Mini Mac, Mini iPod, Mini Manifesto...) and are sliding in the polls. Instead of trying to make some friends their strategy appears to be to try and piss of all the wrong people...

Greens pushing for first Westminster seats

2005-03-03T13:31:00.000Z

It would nice wouldn’t it? Parliament actually having a few MP’s who are genuine progressives/anti-war/etc. Its been a dream for a long time for the Green Party but through thorough grass roots building, constant local campaigning and some success at local council level the Green’s are hoping (with some justification it seems) to gain the first few MP’s in the coming election:

“The Green Party's spring conference is getting underway, with members urged to push for an electoral breakthrough in Westminster. Although it has no MPs, the party is pointing to its representation in the UK's other elected bodies as proof that voters want to "vote Green". As grassroots members gather in Chesterfield, they will point to two MEPs, two London assembly members and seven MSPs as proof of their continued popularity.”

Source: Greens pushing for first Westminster seats

Labour overall majority of 50 to 70?

2005-03-03T10:42:00.000Z

Some think we’ll see a hung parliament others think a Labour majority of around 50-70 seats will be the outcome:

“Populus has shown that the monthly average of all published polls in February puts Labour on 40 per cent, up from 37 per cent the previous month, against 33 per cent for the Tories, up from 32 per cent. So Labour hardly needs to panic. Some of its campaign efforts have been clumsy, but they have made little impact. The Tories should not celebrate too soon. They have had a good two weeks and firmed up their support, but no more.

This year’s election looks tighter than the last two. Labour is four points below its 2001 general election share of the vote, but it has remained in the lead in virtually every poll. My cautious hunch remains a Labour overall majority of 50 to 70.”

Source: Labour isn’t wobbling, but its nerves are jangling

Sandra Howard to star in Tory campaign

2005-03-02T13:43:00.000Z

Looks like the Tories really do mean business; they’re pulling out all the stops by getting Michael Howard’s wife out on the campaign trail. I’m sure it will go down well with the sacred Daily Mail readers but more to the point how will Labour respond (Lib Dems can’t, Charles Kennedy’s wife will be in labour around the time of the election)? Will we see Cherie flown in to seats that Sandra has just left, or vice versa? Isn’t this just a little too much distraction? After all it’s their husbands we’re electing or not electing why should we care about them?

“The Conservatives today unveiled Sandra Howard as their secret election campaign weapon, disclosing that the leader's wife will be making solo visits to key swing seats during the election. The party's co-chairman, Liam Fox, has revealed that Ms Howard will make political appearances unaccompanied by her husband in key target seats.

Unveiling the party's campaigning strategy, Dr Fox told reporters: "Sandra has already been campaigning with Michael on a number of visits and has been undertaking short visits herself. That pattern will continue.”

Tories get serious and Labour means nothing

2005-03-02T13:19:00.000Z

Two report for you today; one on how the Tories are trying to look professional and contrast themselves with Labour in the coming fight. The other is about a well known topic; Labour having no ideology.

“Michael Howard intends to abandon the traditional "battle bus" in favour of a helicopter during the forthcoming election campaign. The Conservative leader is also set to spend every weekend in his constituency - a sign he is concerned about the Liberal Democrat "decapitation strategy".”

Source: Howard ditches campaign bus for helicopter

“One of the best inside analyses of this era so far has come from Peter Hyman, Tony Blair's speech writer and strategist for 10 years. His book 1 Out of 10: From Downing Street Vision to Classroom Reality has drawn most attention for his jump from the Downing Street heights to working in the depths of a tough inner-London comprehensive.

But his critique of where "the project" is marooned now is rapier-sharp. It is the more poignant because he is himself New Labour Man to the core. He is not disaffected, rejected or resigned-in-disgust. But he sees exactly where it is all losing its edge, failing to renew itself.”

Source: New Labour gives you no chance to vote for a vision

Spot the difference

2005-02-28T13:32:00.000Z

It's true the difference between the three main parties can only be seen with an electronic microscope! Anyway, the Guardian has decided to try and figure out what, if any, differences they have (scroll down the article for a breakdown of the issues):

“In an age of allegedly post-ideological politics, when the battles between the Thatcherite right and the Bennite left seem like distant history, it is a common complaint among disgruntled voters and activists that Britain has quietly collapsed into a prosperous managerial regime. As Alexander Pope put it in the 18th century, when the revolutionary zeal of an earlier age was also frowned on: "For forms of government let fools contest / Whate'er is best administered is best." Pope died before zeal made a comeback.

But is it true that the right won the economic arguments and the left won the cultural arguments, as is sometimes asserted? George Bush does not think so: he fights "liberalism" on both fronts. In Britain the picture is, typically, more mixed as the parties polish their manifestos.”

Source: Spot the difference

Kennedy calls for positive campaign

2005-02-26T20:31:00.000Z

“Charles Kennedy has vowed to campaign on "principles and values" at the upcoming general election. Addressing his party's Scottish conference in Perth, he said negative campaigning damaged people's faith in politics and the Lib Dems would take the high ground.”

I guess by high ground what he means is tokenism and opportunism when there are votes in it! He’s playing a clever game though, with no real chance of winning the Lib Dems can sit back and look principled. Labour and the Tories know they have a chance of winning and will fight tooth and nail thus the election will be very dirty indeed. I will bet good money on the Lib Dems giving up this charade in the election after next if they have a shot of getting into power...

Source: Kennedy calls for positive campaign

Cook: Give Brown key campaign role

2005-02-26T20:25:00.000Z

Perhaps the title should read; “Cook: Brown give me a job once you’ve got rid of Tony”? Not quite as snappy I know but let’s be frank, getting rid of Blair will be Brown’s central concern if Labour win the election. Cook knows this and I reckon he’s doing the political equivalent of sending flowers by making this an issue:

“Former foreign secretary Robin Cook called for Chancellor Gordon Brown to be given a central role in Labour's General Election campaign. Mr Cook warned that recent "negative" campaigning tactics were proving a turn off for voters and he contrasted them unfavourably with the positive campaign run by Mr Brown in the 2001 election.”

Source: Give Brown key campaign role - Cook

Will politics ever get e-serious?

2005-02-25T16:46:00.000Z

Good article from Bill Thompson in the BBC Tech site. He writes about the potential political use of the net and the role it will play in the coming election.

“The political classes will be surprised indeed if the next General Election doesn't take place on 5 May. In fact Tony Blair might even lose votes if he disappoints us and goes for another date. Apart from the date, the other thing that is clear to all observers is that the internet will play a key part in the campaign, with exhortatory e-mails, party websites and candidate weblogs all being wheeled out to persuade voters of the merits of one party over another.”

Source: Will politics ever get e-serious?

Election fever ramps up

2005-02-25T10:55:00.000Z

Things are starting go get a little tense now that the new polls are filtering their way through the parties, media and people. A couple of reports/opinion pieces point toward a fierce General Election (once it actually gets going) as well as contrary claims as to who is doing well with the electorate.

“Tony Blair's allies yesterday warned the prime minister that his hopes of winning a secure third term now depend on neutralising Michael Howard's Australian-imported election strategy after the all-but-written-off Conservatives were buoyed by two polls putting them within three points of Labour.”

Source: Blair urged to woo angry supporters as buoyant Tories close gap

“For weeks staff at the Conservative campaign headquarters in London's Victoria Street have been counting the days since the party attacked over asylum and immigration. At first the opinion polls did not shift. But the shadow cabinet was given clear guidance by Lynton Crosby, the campaign director who steered Australia's conservative government to unlikely election victories and who is now the indisputable master of the Tory campaign.

It would take seven days, he said, for an idea to travel from a Westminster policy announcement to the media and then the public. Then it would take at least another seven days for the issue to shift public opinion, then reach the pollsters and finally the newspapers in a published poll.”

Source: How the Tories got back in the game

“Party strategists are struggling to establish the mood of the electorate as the latest poll puts Labour six per cent ahead of the Conservatives. The YouGov poll for the Telegraph puts Labour support up three points since January on 38 per cent, with the Tories slipping two points to 32 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats down one on 21 per cent.

But any new found optimism in the Tory camp will be tempered by the latest YouGov poll which demonstrates the volatility of both polls and voters.”

Source: Poll confusion over Labour lead

Election 'could be terror target'

2005-02-24T17:20:00.000Z

It seems Blair really needs to move the focus away from those polls…

“Sir Ian Blair said terror groups would remember the effect of the Madrid bomb on Spain's general election last year. Other potential targets were the royal wedding and the UK's presidency of the European Union and G8, he said. He refused to say if there was specific information about the risk of a pre-poll attack. No 10 was similarly cautious but said the threat was real.”

Source: Election 'could be terror target'

Asylum cutting Labour's lead

2005-02-24T10:25:00.000Z

It’s remarkable how fast things can turn around. Labour and the Tories were polls apart at one stage and now there’s only 2% difference (that’s half the average statistical error!) between them. While I still don’t see a Conservative victory happening, the best they’ll achieve is a hung parliament; it will be cause for concern for Neo Labour election strategists. More to the point though, what about the rest of us? Isn’t there something wrong with a democracy were the “choice” we have is between two parties that are as close in policy as they are in the polls?

“The Mori survey conducted for the Financial Times suggests asylum and immigration tops voters concerns and that many have been attracted by the Conservatives tough talking on the issue. With an election looming, probably on May 5, the poll puts Labour on 39 per cent, the Conservatives on 37 per cent, and the Lib Dems trailing on 18 per cent. It is the second poll in a week showing a substantial cut in Labour's lead, suggesting the Tory's campaign is working more effectively than their opponents.”

Source: Asylum cutting Labour's lead

Labour announces UK General Election!

2005-02-23T16:44:00.000Z

Ok, I haven’t got an amazingly exclusive story to break but Gordon Brown kind of does. It was announced today that the pre-election Budget will be on March 16^th. Not a significant date you may comment but Blair isn’t likely to announce the election date that week (he’ll want the Budget good news to play out in the news for a few days) that means he will the week after. The following week is the cut off date for announcing a May 5^th election.

So there we have a highly speculative but in my view very likely announcement of the UK General Election came today:

"Gordon Brown, the chancellor, will deliver his budget speech on March 16, the Treasury announced today, in what almost certainly will be the last budget before a May general election."

Source: Brown to deliver budget on March 16

Labour to help black candidates

2005-02-23T14:52:00.000Z

As if to justify my previous comment about voting groups comes this:

“Labour party chiefs are promising urgent training and mentoring initiatives to help black candidates win parliamentary selections after four ethnic minority contenders were beaten in the contest to succeed Tony Banks in West Ham.

But that may not be enough to assuage widespread concern. Simon Woolley of Operation Black Vote said: "Black Britain will be asking what must we do to get selected for a Labour party seat. It is a disaster for representative democracy. A factor in this debacle was the lack of black unity, caused in no small measure because talented black men and women are afforded so few opportunities. Now more than ever the party needs a black caucus and a serious debate about all-black shortlists."

Source: Labour to help black candidates

Which vote are you (revisited)?

2005-02-23T11:36:00.000Z

It all comes to which voting group you represent and how organised/influential your group is. The importance of that point cannot be overstated. Today we have two more reports on that theme:

“Let me welcome Lyn Brown, the newly selected Labour candidate for West Ham, to the bearpit that is national politics. Lyn emerged the victor from an all-women shortlist (AWS) procedure, and should become a member of parliament after the next election. She is bright, affecting, and has local knowledge. The people of West Ham will be well served. But today the party should be ashamed of itself.

It declares to anyone who will listen that its dearest wish is to have more minority MPs. And yet, despite all the comments and signals from the regional organisers, the outgoing MP, black activists, and party chairman Ian McCartney, the local party decided that a white person is the best to represent a constituency in which nearly 60% are minorities.”

Source: Equality means everyone

“The Conservatives yesterday stepped up their bid to regain campaign momentum by using 200 local and regional newspapers to relaunch their plans to improve pensions and council tax rebates. Buoyed by yesterday's Guardian/ICM poll which showed the gap with Labour closing to 3%, the Tory leader, Michael Howard, unveiled the party's manifesto for older people before an audience of pensioners in London.”

Source: Tories step up fight for older voters

Kennedy to woo women

2005-02-22T16:27:00.000Z

I haven’t stopped giggling at the title of this article yet so here’s a quote and no commentary from me!

“The Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, will today make a pitch for women's votes in the upcoming general election, setting out his party's female-friendly policies on a range of issues from childcare to pensions. Launching his party's manifesto for women, Mr Kennedy will promise a guaranteed maternity income of £170 a week for mothers in the first six months of their baby's life.”

Polls apart?

2005-02-22T10:16:00.000Z

Following on from yesterday’s theme of comparison I give you these two reports:

“Labour's opinion poll lead has been cut to only three points in the last month as the Tory pre-election campaign gains momentum, according to the results of this month's Guardian/ICM opinion poll published today.

With the expected date of the general election only 72 days away the poll results will alarm Labour election strategists who fear Conservatives could use the intensive "phoney war" campaigning to close the gap between the parties”

Source: Tories gain ground on Labour

“The detailed poll findings show that in spite of a modest recovery in Mr Blair's own personal ratings since the Iraq war his appeal is restricted to Labour's core vote.

Among the party faithful he is as popular as Mr Brown, with 80% of Labour voters seeing him as an asset in the coming election campaign and only 16% regarding him as a liability, giving him a net rating of plus 64 points.

But other party voters do not see him that way. Conservative voters give Mr Blair a net rating of minus 41 points and Liberal Democrats minus 14. In comparison Mr Brown is seen as a positive asset to the Labour party by Conservative voters, who give him a rating of plus 24, and Liberal Democrats, who rate him at a very healthy plus 43 points.”

Source: Blair's problem: floating voters prefer Brown

Jesse Jackson event: book now online!

2005-02-21T14:56:00.000Z

Online booking is now up and running on the OBV site. Click here to secure your seats for the event. We’ve also got a flyer which can be printed off/emailed etc: event flyer

Which vote are you?

2005-02-21T14:21:00.000Z

Which vote are you? Now more than ever various voting groups are vying for attention and influence. Working as I do for OBV I obviously campaign for the black vote but there is others…

We all know about the Countryside Alliance but as yet no party seems to explicitly target their voters. The student vote, the Muslim vote and the anti war vote have all been reported in recent days. Each group has a varying level of political organisation/ambition and it will be interesting to see what kind of success they achieve in the aftermath of the election.

Oh yes, the Guardian has a neat round up of their reporting on these various voting groups here.

Labour: A tale of two elections

2005-02-21T14:19:00.000Z

Two sides of the coin in the following articles. One which argues for voting against Neo Labour and one that argues for voting them.

“There is a word that covers uncritical support, non-negotiable loyalty and blind faith. It is called fundamentalism. The rest of us have some hard thinking to do. The next few months will find us regaled by friends and foes at work and play, in print and on screen. They will threaten us with life under Michael Howard. Like a Soviet commissar without a clipboard, they will parrot the achievements of the past eight years in facts and figures by rote.”

Source: We cannot vote Labour

“…the duty of Labour party members is clear. We must work for another landslide. Then, if it does not happen, we will remind the new model army that - according to their own theory - the victory is Labour's, not Blair's.”

Source: Win this one for Labour, not for Blair

Blogs: a warning to the left

2005-02-19T20:30:00.000Z

Iain Duncan Smith it seems has spent his time not being Tory leader doing some reading and evolving his world view. He is to my knowledge one of the first politicians to click on the power of the Blog to influence politics. Talking today’s Guardian he details how Blogging can become the saviour for the right. Leftists take note; if you do not draw that conclusion fast what happened over there will happen over here.

“Dan Rather, the anchor of CBS's evening news, was as big as TV stars come. Rather had fronted an attack on George Bush's Vietnam-era military service record - based on forged documents. The forgery was exposed when Bloggers focused on a superscripted "th" after a date in one of the documents. Experts confirmed that typewriters of the period could not have produced such lettering. Rather apologised and CBS is now desperately searching for someone else in whom viewers might put their trust.

This is just one of the ways in which the internet has strengthened the American right. Last year's Bush-Cheney campaign used information technology to build the largest ever volunteer political army. Visitors to GeorgeWBush.com were invited to join email lists that offered regular information on everything from gun ownership to school prayer. The Bush campaign collected 7.5 million email addresses and amassed 1.4 million volunteers.”

Black manifesto and Jesse Jackson event: an update

2005-02-18T15:26:00.000Z

A slight correction on my earlier post about Jesse Jackson; the event on the 9^th March is NOT the launch of the black manifesto it’s to rally the black vote. The black manifesto is scheduled for launch three days prior on the 6^th March. The Jesse Jackson event will be a public rally with roughly 5/6 speakers (Simon Woolley, Jesse Jackson, Lee Jasper and others). I’ll post up info on how to reserve seats for it when I get them (at the time of writing I should receive the flyer by the end of the day).