Election 05

Done and dusted

2005-05-09T16:16:00.000+01:00

Well, the whole thing is well and truly over now. Even the other election bloggers are returning to politics as normal and its time for this one to shut down.

It's been a real pleasure to write this over the last few months so much so that i'm actually finding it hard to let go of it! I think we'll see more of this type of thing at the next election and I for one look forward to it.

For now, i'm taking a week off work, not watching any (well too much) news and taking a short break from the whole political thing. I'll be back with a new blog (and maybe with a couple of other people too) soon enough. If you want to know more, keep in touch or just say hi until the new blog goes live you can contact me at leon.green at gmail.com.

Take care people, see you soon.

Regards

Leon

Tory leader runners and riders

2005-05-06T16:48:00.000+01:00

Much has been made about the tussles for power within the Labour party between Blair and Brown. Even more has been made about the supposed deal made again and again between the two about Brown succeeding Blair if and when the latter steps down. Something that is now coming into view is the fight for the Tory leadership. Not much has been made about this but with Michael Howard announcing his intention to step down I’m sure we’ll see more.

Having talked to someone close to the Tory party (someone who in fact knows three frontbenchers well) the rumour is that Howard will change the voting rules for the leadership contests so that the Parliamentary party will have greater say (William Hague changed the rules to allow all Tory party members one member one vote to decide its leader) before stepping down. If he achieves this he’ll be likely to step down just before Christmas which is around the time I actually think Blair will go!

Anyway, the BBC has an article about the current state of play within the Tory party and who might go for the top job.

“Tory leader Michael Howard has announced he is to stand down following his party's election defeat in order to allow a younger leader to take over.

Speculation about who will take over the Conservative leadership has begun, with bookmakers William Hill already offering 3/1 odds on the shadow home secretary David Davis.” Link

Five things Tony Blair should learn from the election

2005-05-06T15:35:00.000+01:00

If only...Blair strikes me as someone who doesn't really care that much what others think only how they'll react to what he does.

"1. Labour wins when it governs from the centre. Tony Blair has made history, winning an unprecedented third Labour term, by worrying about middle England as well as the party's heartland supporters.

2. Iraq hurt: don't invade countries just because you don't like their regimes. It wasn't only the chattering classes who cared about the war. Despite what Mr Blair's advisers tell him, it isn't just a Guardian obsession.

3. Labour needs a smooth succession. Mr Blair must sit down with Gordon Brown and agree on when he should stand down. They should wait until at least after the referendum on the EU constitution.

4. People still don't like the Tories. The party's 33% share of the vote is not much of an improvement on its scores from 1997 and 2001. Despite Labour's much reduced majority, the government party can win a fourth term.

5. Our election system needs changing. It can't be fair that the Liberal Democrats won 22% of the vote but only 10% of the parliamentary seats. Surely Mr Blair can see the opportunity of creating a long-lasting progressive majority by introducing proportional representation." Link

Results

2005-05-06T03:42:00.000+01:00

Just got in from the ICA election event! I'm far too tired (and yes, drunk!) to give any coherent opinion on the night thus far save to say that there have been a few surprises. Stephen Twigg losing his seat being the one that take me by surprise but anyway click here for the full results and here for some general reports and updates.

Late change of plans

2005-05-05T17:47:00.000+01:00

Looks like the office thing has fallen through so now we're off to some bar to watch the results come in. If you're in town and want to join us we'll be here! I've just heard that Blink will be doing some live stuff throughout the night so keeping an eye there would be good, also if i'm not too drunk I'll and post my thoughts when I get home later.

Britain's voters heading to polls

2005-05-05T11:39:00.000+01:00

So...I voted and now begins the long wait until this evening. Work are having an informal get together with a wide screen TV and Playstation 2 on hand until the results show starts. Because i'll probably be here until 2 in the morning expect an entry or two!

"Voting is under way in the UK general election after a 30-day campaign.

Polls remain open in 645 constituencies until 2200 BST, with the first results due at 2345. It will not be clear who has won until early on Friday. " Link

OBV's General Election 2005

2005-05-04T16:30:00.000+01:00

Just up on the Operation Black Vote site is a timely look back over our election campaigning. Every picture speaks volumes and has a hundred stories behind them! Enjoy!

Election battle nears its climax

2005-05-04T16:23:00.000+01:00

Their battle ends and our job begins...

“The final dash for votes is on in the last hours of election campaigning for the political parties.

Labour leader Tony Blair has continued his warnings about the Conservatives by claiming they would risk the economy and investment in public services. Tory leader Michael Howard says his party would offer action on the people's priorities and open a new "chapter of hope" for Britain. Charles Kennedy predicted the Lib Dems would take a "massive step forward".” Link

Last ditch appeal for the Black vote

2005-05-04T14:46:00.000+01:00

An article about last night’s hustings in Holborn; the debate was a little more heated than the article suggests with one person being ejected for disruption. That said the audience was a good mix with much passion, insight and relentless attempts to hold the panel to account.

One more thing that really impressed me (and again not mentioned in the article) was how impressive the green MEP Jean Lamberts was! She not only had some of the biggest applauses of the night she also came across as being the person with the most integrity. I’ve never actually looked at a politician before and thought I could trust a word they said but Jean had me won over.

Chalk another vote up for the Greens tomorrow (and thats my opinion not official OBV policy btw!).

“Hustings organiser Simon Woolley, director of OBV, said our communities were "at the dawn of a new era of civic engagement." Reminding his audience that Black voters can decide the result of 70 seats, he said: "Never before have the Black electorate been so powerful.

"It's unacceptable that we only have 13 MP's when it should be nearer 60. Whose gonna change it? We're gonna change it when we use our votes and tell them no-one will get our vote until they address our concerns."" Link

Blair: don't risk a Tory government

2005-05-04T12:21:00.000+01:00

Perhaps if you don’t want a Tory government you shouldn’t vote for Blair/Neo Labour? Anyway, we’re into the last few hours of the election campaign and things look, well, not that much different really. Labour look set to win with a fairly workable majority, the Tories may even pick a few new seats as might the Lib Dems. The only really change we might see is a Green MP or two and a possible Respect MP.

Of course the interesting times will really start when Brown takes over, the economy takes a dive and Bush orders the UK to invade Iran with him! Pessimism? Maybe. Cynicism? Quite probably!

“The three party leaders will be criss-crossing the country today in a frantic last bid to get their votes out, with Mr Blair touching down in Lancashire, Scotland and County Durham; Mr Howard visiting Surrey, Yorkshire and Norfolk; and Mr Kennedy stopping in London and Yorkshire.

The latest Times/Populus opinion poll puts Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives, on 41% compared to the Tories' 27%, and with the Liberal Democrats on 23%.” Link

Poll reveals fragility of Labour lead

2005-05-03T01:07:00.000+01:00

Remember, sometimes, nothing is what it seems and your world can change in a blink of an eye...

"As all three main parties manoeuvre for last minute advantage 48 hours from polling day, ICM's campaign polls data shows that Labour's vote share in 108 key seats where it faces a strong Tory challenge is down from 47% in 2001 to 41%. The Tories have maintained their share of the vote at around 36%, suggesting their strategy of focusing money and personnel on re-winning lost marginals may inflict damage deep within Labour's post-1997 comfort zone." Link

What to do next?

2005-05-02T18:44:00.000+01:00

It occurs to me that this is one of the last few posts on this blog. I've got to say i've enjoyed it a great deal. It's been great fun to write an election blog (my first proper politics one at that!). Now my thoughts turn to what next? I want to keep this going but obviously the election will end so an election focused blog is pretty pointless. At present i'm thinkining of creating a new blog more broadly centred on politics but both local/community and westminster oriented.

I've still some stuff to think over (going for a drink with a friend in a couple of hours who is thinking similar things) but rest assured I will be around writing " an angry, idiotic, funny, or even insightful blog about" politics no matter what happens!

Punters defy polls to predict Labour crash

2005-05-02T02:42:00.000+01:00

Interesting stuff this; a friend of mine has been convinced all along that Labour will suffer a cut in seats and end up with a 60/70 seat majority. It seems that the betting people of this country agree...

"Richard Glynn, chief executive of the spread betting company, Sporting Index, said: "Our betting markets are formed by considered views backed by money - not sentiment."

Punters are betting that Labour's majority will be as low as 60 seats. Few punters are backing a majority of more than 80 seats." Link

" I wouldn’t be voting Labour if it weren’t for Brown.”

2005-04-30T20:35:00.000+01:00

Following on neatly from the entry below this article is worth a read. It attempts to start the new industry of understanding the Brown premiership! Good timing if you ask me...

"Mr Barrett clearly likes the Chancellor, and when Mr Brown had moved on I asked him if he thought he would make a better prime minister than the current one.

“Wouldn’t be hard, would it,” he said, grumpily.

“What do you mean?” I asked.

“Blair’s a liar. I wouldn’t be voting Labour if it weren’t for Brown.” The other apprentices nodded their assent. One day, Mr Brown will surely look back on these as his salad days." Link

Brown Puts Iraq in Election Spotlight

2005-04-30T20:01:00.000+01:00

Something of a puzzler this; why would Brown return to the Iraq issue when it is leaving the news agenda and so close to polling day? A bid for an early leadership change perhaps? His idea to let parliament always have a say on whether the country goes to war could be construed as an attempt to woo the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party), laying the foundation for him moving on Blair sooner than most people think.

I've thought often these past few months that Blair will be gone alot sooner that most people think. Some people I know think Blair will be gone in about 12 to 18 months, I don't think it'll be that long; I think he'll be got rid of by the end of the year...

"Tony Blair's finance minister Gordon Brown reignited the unpopular Iraq war as an election issue on Saturday, just days before Britain's May 5 vote, by saying parliament should have the last say on military action.

Brown's comments came despite attempts by his center-left Labor party to steer its campaign onto what strategists see as vote-winning issues, including the economy and health." Link

Blair and Howard return to flagship policies

2005-04-29T12:21:00.000+01:00

Looks like they've exhausted themselves and have decided to return to type.

"Labour and the Tories today sought to refocus on their core campaign messages, with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown highlighting their economic record and Michael Howard reminding voters of his five key pledges.

After a week dominated by the Iraq war and the publication yesterday of the attorney general's legal advice on military action, the prime minister and chancellor joined forces to unveil a new slogan of "Forward with Blair & Brown"." Link

Advice reveals Lord Goldsmith's doubts

2005-04-28T14:13:00.000+01:00

They really didn’t have much choice but to release it did they!?

“The government has broken with precedent and published the full text of the attorney general's March 7 legal advice to the prime minister, setting out Lord Goldsmith's cautious approach to the legality of the Iraq war.

Tony Blair authorised the disclosure on Thursday morning, after large parts of the documents were leaked to the media on Wednesday evening.” Link

You can read the full legal advice here. And Blair's response can be found here.

Positives of going negative

2005-04-27T16:39:00.000+01:00

Good comment on the current negative spiral the election is taking (well at least between the two bigger parties).

“It is the political sin everyone indulges in but nobody wants to admit to. And it looks like it is about to escalate in the closing days of the current election contest. Negative campaigning, what else, has been a feature of virtually every election in recent memory.” Link

Life in a glass house

2005-04-27T14:17:00.000+01:00

Given all the things Alistair Campbell has pulled over the years I think it’s a bit disingenuous to act as if Lynton Crosby is worse. Two pees in a pod if you ask me…

“Crosby's tactics represent a truly serious threat to the civility and robustness of British democracy and the way most politics is conducted in this country. It may be all downwards from here on.” Link

BNP tries scare tactics to win target voters

2005-04-27T13:58:00.000+01:00

These people disgust me.

“The far-right British National party is claiming that Africans are being paid up to £50,000 to move into its number one target seat to protect the majority of a government minister. The party has poured activists from the south of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland into Barking, the east London seat that the children's minister, Margaret Hodge, holds with a 9,500 majority.

Voters are being canvassed by 50- to 60-strong teams of BNP activists and targeted with a series of inflammatory leaflets. One contains the spurious claim about African voters, while another suggests they are being promised new homes in the Thames Gateway. Yet another raises a scare about the rate of TB infection.” Link

OBV sponsoring TUC hustings?

2005-04-27T10:41:00.000+01:00

Its funny how things work; a colleague mentioned that if support was needed for tonight’s Haringey TUC hustings (i.e. putting it up on our website, emailing throughout our networks etc) that’d be fine. We come into work today and find this! Apparently we’re “sponsoring” the hustings! A miscommunication or someone being a bit cheeky and using our name without asking? You decide!

Schoolkids rattle MP's cages

2005-04-26T21:12:00.000+01:00

In better words than I could muster Lester Holloway's write up of yesterdays OBV youth hustings is very close to the mark. It was a high octane event with the young people (I really hate using that word!) taking nothing for granted and being relentless in their persuit of truth. I was inspired and thrilled to see such energy, insight and passion by a group [of people] commonally dimissed as apathetic. Patronising adults take note; young people do care about politics but not bullshit. You have been warned.

"Afterwards Yussif Osman, 15, from Henry Compton school in Fulham, west London, said: "Generally this was really useful. It's one thing hearing them talk on television but it's another thing to be there."

Santier Milson, also 15, from Holland Park school, in central London, was less impressed. "I didn't really respect the Labour person. I didn't respect anyone except the Dean [Ryan] guy.

"The Labour person especially was disrespectful because he wanted to talk but didn't want to listen to what anyone else had to say. He says we should make up our own minds but how are we supposed to make up our own minds when what they're telling us us is false?"" Link

Parties call for Blair impeachment

2005-04-26T14:24:00.000+01:00

Not a snowballs chance in hell of succeeding but a predictable move none the less given the current news agenda...

"Leaders of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist parties vowed on Tuesday to resume their bid to impeach Prime Minister Tony Blair over his "record of lies" in the run-up to war with Iraq.

While the impeachment move is more symbolic than realistic, the campaign by the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru is likely to keep the subject of Iraq and Blair's integrity at the top of the political agenda before the May 5 election." Link

Lib Dem candidate dumps agent!

2005-04-26T14:15:00.000+01:00

Oh yeah, on a different note I've just heard that a Lib Dem candidate has just sacked their agent (yes that's right ten days before the election!). I've no idea which one as my source (who've been asked to be the candidates new agent) wont tell me! It'll probably come to nothing but it is quite drastic to dump your agent this close to polling day. I'm also wondering what the reason was...

Row over trust and Iraq continues

2005-04-26T14:10:00.000+01:00

It's the story that just wont go away...

"The party leaders have continued their row over Iraq and the trustworthiness of the prime minister. In an interview with the Guardian, Tony Blair attacked the Conservative leader for branding him a "liar" and for calling on the electorate to "send him a message". The Labour leader said Howard's move was part of a negative campaign being directed by Australian electoral strategist Lynton Crosby." Link